Here it is, one of the many experiments I recently conducted.

• Experiment:Using smaller ads to try to increase cpc earnings
• Details: Switching from two large medium blocks to one 728 leaderboard, using blending techniques from Adsense Videos
• Verdict: Failure

Effect on CTR and earnings

Clicks (and therefore CTR) fell by 50%. Nothing beats having two medium blocks above the fold. PPC did increase slightly, but not as much I’d hoped. The lost clicks were not compensated for by the increased PPC.

Possible Errors

I consider myself something of a scientist, and according need to state that Adsense experiments are difficult because of the possibilities of errors. I generally run experiments for at least a week. It’s actually preadtty hard to see your earnings fall and not jump in.

People often say they can’t believe I sacrifice Adsense Earnings to make these posts. I don’t do experiments so I have something to write about; I do experiments to optimize my earnings, and sometimes that means takeing a hit for a week. It sometimes means finding something that doubles your CTR and earns you big money over the long run.

Next Adsense Experiment

I’m going to revert the Ad back to two med. blocks, or might decrease them to small blocks, but I’m going to again incorporate the blending techniques from Adsense Videos, which helped increase the CTR of this experiment by far.

As someone who has a significant interest in both economics and business, I’d like to share with you my thoughts on the upcoming recession, as well as some business tips you might find helpful.

Cause of Recession

I believe there are very few legitimate reasons for a recession. For sure, all the big spending on easy credit done during the good years take a toll on spending, which of course reduces how much cash is going around.

But a recession is really a social epidemic–a state of mind held by the population at large and certainly propagated by the media. Sure, it sounds insane, but bare with me. After the economy booms for around six years, economists love to start predicting the fall of the marketing, citing the long accepted market cycle diagram. Although the first few rounds of speculation get ignored, the extended period of good times start to make people wonder when it’s all going to crash. Being accustomed to this cycle (6 years of good, 2 of bad) is really a self-fulfilling perspective. As soon as recession rumors begin, the media spreads it like wildfire.

Once news starts spreading, the vicious circle starts: investors as well as consumers start thinking twice about spending big, which in turn shows as a minor decrease in spending; as soon as the decrease is released, it turns into huge news that the initial recession speculations were correct. Enter big expenditure cutbucks across the country, which ultimately causes the recession.

The cycle I’ve described is analogous to Oprah Winfrey going on her show and saying “I have a feeling Book X is going to get a million more sales next week, because it’s a great book”. The pattern of causality is more obvious here: Oprah’s speculation was the cause of the increase. In effect, the media confirms any rumor of a recession and is the cause of the subsequent decrease in spending.

How does a recession end?

The same way it starts. As investors become convinced that the recession is ending, they start to become more liberal in investment (if prices have hit rock bottom, it’s a good time to buy right?). Again, the feeling that the recession should be ending soon is what causes the speculation that it is ending. Soon as the news gets on it, the country starts getting out their wallets and going nuts.

In fact, the huge boom we see after a recession is thanks to the enormous capital war chests corporations get from investors who’ve been patiently waiting to invest.

Invest during a recession - make huge profit

OK, so if I think a recession is purely psychological, am I going to cut down spending and start penny counting? You bet your ass. Even though I think the recession is caused by people thinking this way, I’m not planning to turn the economic condition of the country around singlehandedly. Still, knowing how people think during a recession works to my advantage. (more…)